Mid-Year Market Check-In: Cutting Through the Noise
- Holzberg Wealth Management
- Jul 17
- 6 min read
Updated: Aug 21
HWM Market Recap - July 2025
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If someone had told you back in January that the first half of 2025 would bring shrinking U.S. GDP in the first quarter, persistent global trade tensions, multiple rounds of new tariffs, escalating conflict in the Middle East, and political turmoil both at home and abroad, you might have braced for the worst. And despite all that noise (and we can all agree it has undoubtedly been a noisy first half to the year), the S&P 500 delivered surprisingly strong returns.
The chart below plots the S&P 500’s performance this year against a backdrop of major headlines.
S&P 500 and Headlines For the First Half of 2025
Data from 1/1/2025 – 6/30/2025. Source: Avantis Investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
You can clearly see the noise: geopolitical turmoil, inflation updates, Fed decisions, layoffs, job gains, unexpected tariff rollbacks. And yet, through it all, the market continued to climb higher. The chart’s visual chaos serves as a helpful reminder of how confusing things can feel in real-time and why trying to make short-term predictions based on news cycles is often a losing game.
From high-profile geopolitical shocks to policy shifts and economic data surprises, the market faced a barrage of unsettling news. There were periods of sharp decline (nearly 19% from February to early April) followed almost immediately by a robust rebound, with the index gaining more than 24% in the span of less than three months. As of the end of June, the S&P 500 has experienced nine all-time highs this year. And let’s not forget that this year, we experienced some of the largest single-day market swings on record:
A nearly 6% drop on April 4th, shortly after the sweeping U.S. tariffs were announced, marked the 19th largest daily decline for the S&P 500 index.
Followed by a 9.5% surge on April 9th, the day President Trump issued a 90-day tariff pause, the index experienced its largest one-day gain since 2008 and the third-largest since its launch in 1957.
So, if you are looking for some key takeaways from this period of high uncertainty, we have a few to share.
First, our sentiment about the economy or markets does not always match how markets perform. We tend to overemphasize bad news and underappreciate the good, which can lead to emotionally driven decisions that harm long-term outcomes. This is referred to as 'headwinds vs. tailwinds asymmetry,' and we discussed it in more detail in our May newsletter.
Second, markets are not reacting only to what just happened; they are forward-looking, constantly adjusting prices based on future expectations. That means today's scary headline may already be priced into the market.
And third, short-term volatility can feel extreme in the moment. That emotional pressure to 'do something' can be intense, but reacting in those moments is often counterproductive. The best move is often to simply stay the course.
Other data supports this message of resilience. Consumer sentiment saw its biggest monthly increase in over 30 years this June, and corporate earnings for the S&P 500 are on pace to grow nearly 9% this year, which has helped drive strong market performance despite the broader uncertainty. Meanwhile, unemployment has remained remarkably stable, and inflation (although still a focus) has been lower than many had feared. In other words, the bark from the headlines has been worse than the bite from the actual data.
And while all of this has unfolded, we also witnessed some significant developments immediately after the first half concluded. On July 4th, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was officially passed, which made sweeping tax reforms. While technically a second-half of the year development, it is something we are watching closely. If you are curious about what the bill includes and how it might affect you, check out our breakdown – The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) 2025: Your Financial Planning Guide.
So, where does all of this leave us?
Nobody knows what the second half of 2025 will bring. But if the first half has taught us anything, it is that maintaining perspective, especially during chaotic times, is essential. Volatility is not a sign that something is broken. It is a feature of the market, not a flaw.
The most successful investors are not those who chase headlines; they are the ones who stay grounded, keep things in perspective, and continue moving forward.
This is why having a long-term perspective matters so much. Markets have weathered decades of geopolitical crises, inflation spikes, recessions, and even a global pandemic, and they have rewarded those who stayed invested. A dollar invested in global stocks in 1970 would have grown to $126 by mid-2025, despite all the challenges along the way.
Growth of $1 – MSCI World Index
January 1, 1970 - June 24, 2025
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. In USD. Source: MSCI World Index (net div.). MSCI data © MSCI 2025, all rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Data presented in the Growth of $1 chart is hypothetical and assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. The chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Chart created by Dimensional Fund Advisors.
That kind of growth did not come from perfectly timing entries and exits. It came from discipline, patience, and a commitment to the long game.
If you ever feel uncertain, have questions, or just want to talk things through, we are always here.
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Monthly Changes in Indices
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Monthly Performance By Sector
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Interest Rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it is holding interest rates steady in its June meeting, where they have been since December.
Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% month-over-month in June, after rising 0.1% in May. Over the last twelve months, CPI increased 2.7%. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) increased 0.2% in June compared to May and rose 2.9% compared to a year ago.
Housing: According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales increased 0.8% month-over-month in May and decreased 0.7% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price rose 1.3% from May 2024 to $422,800 – the 23rd consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Sales of new single-family houses decreased 13.7% in May from April and fell 6.3% from May 2024. The median sales price of new houses sold in May was $411,400 – a 3% increase from a year ago.
Mortgage Rates: As of July 10th, 2025, the weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.72%, slightly above the 52-week average of 6.68% and down 0.17% from a year ago.
Employment: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Summary, unemployment was unchanged in June at 4.1%. Job gains occurred in state government and health care.
Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers surged 16% from May – its first increase in six months. Compared to its reading from one year prior, consumer sentiment is down 11%. Year-ahead inflation expectations plummeted from 6.6% in May to 5.0% in June. Long-run inflation expectations decreased for the second straight month from 4.2% in May to 4.0% in June.
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About the Author
Holzberg Wealth Management is a family-owned and operated financial planning and investment management firm based in Marin County, CA. As your financial advisors, we serve you as a fiduciary and are fee-only, so we never receive commissions of any kind. We help individuals and families like you in the greater San Francisco Bay Area and nationwide with the financial decision-making process to organize, grow, and protect your assets.
** This writing is for informational purposes only. The author and Holzberg Wealth Management do not guarantee or otherwise promise any results that may be obtained from using this report. No reader should make any investment decision without first consulting their financial advisor and conducting their own research and due diligence. These commentaries, analyses, opinions, and recommendations represent the personal and subjective views of the author and do not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to make any securities transaction. The information provided in this report is obtained from sources that the author believes to be reliable. External links to third parties are being provided for informational purposes only. Holzberg Wealth Management is not affiliated with the third-party websites linked to, unless otherwise explicitly stated, and does not constitute an endorsement or approval by Holzberg Wealth Management of any of the third party’s products, services, or opinions. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Any charts and graphs provided are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only, are not indicative of any investment, and assume reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes.
